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Correlation
of values
-80%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
35
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~63% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~6 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-80%
Based on values
95% CI
-89% → -63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
785
Normalized
940
785
Prepared
940
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
R²(i)
63.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-6 months
Correlation at this shift
-85%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread shifted 6 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread 6 months ago?"
23 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-80%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 months
-85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+47%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+53%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
907
A: 905 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6191
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.7077
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-unrate_monthly_5y