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Correlation
of values
+54%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
35
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~29% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~3 months before Bank Reserves
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on Bank Reserves.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+54%
Based on values
95% CI
+25% → +74%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
811
Normalized
785
811
Prepared
36
811
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
R²(i)
29%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
+75%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
Bank Reserves shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread today line up with Bank Reserves 3 months from now?"
32 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
+75%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+71%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-12%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
777
A: 1 / B: 776
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 36 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
605.9028
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2550.7144
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-totresns_monthly_5y