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Correlation
of values
-58%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
34
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~17 months before Total Consumer Credit
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on Total Consumer Credit.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-58%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
34 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,000
785
Normalized
1,000
785
Prepared
1,000
37
Aligned
34
34
Invalid removed
34%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
34
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
-87%
+29% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does Total Consumer Credit today line up with ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread 17 months ago?"
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
-87%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-50%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-33%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
969
A: 966 / B: 3
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
11.0933
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y