Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+40%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
747
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~6 days before 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+40%
Based on values
95% CI
+34% → +46%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
5,862
Normalized
785
5,862
Prepared
785
5,862
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
+45%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread today line up with 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate 6 days from now?"
741 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
+45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-26%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-14%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
129 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,153
A: 38 / B: 5115
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,862 raw → 5,862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1863
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.0572
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-t5yifr_daily_5y