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Correlation
of values
-39%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
747
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on values
95% CI
-45% → -33%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
5,925
Normalized
785
5,925
Prepared
785
5,925
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-39%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
142 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,216
A: 38 / B: 5178
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,925 raw → 5,925 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
33
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3777
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.7710
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-t5yie_daily_5y