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Correlation
of values
-66%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
747
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~43% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-66%
Based on values
95% CI
-70% → -61%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,173
785
Normalized
11,173
785
Prepared
11,173
785
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
R²(i)
43%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-66%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+22%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
157 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,464
A: 10426 / B: 38
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,173 raw → 11,173 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Sign agreement
45.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1454
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.0852
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-t10y3m_daily_5y