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Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-06
747
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~52% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
747 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,520
785
Normalized
12,520
785
Prepared
12,520
785
Aligned
747
747
Invalid removed
52%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
747
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-72%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
747 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+30%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
119 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,811
A: 11773 / B: 38
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,520 raw → 12,520 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Sign agreement
61.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2958
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.1869
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-t10y2y_daily_5y