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Correlation
of values
-84%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-14
750
These move in the same direction about 31% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~71% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-84%
Based on values
95% CI
-86% → -82%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
750 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
2,512
Normalized
785
2,512
Prepared
785
2,512
Aligned
750
750
Invalid removed
R²(i)
71%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
750
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-84%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
750 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-84%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+73%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
187 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,797
A: 35 / B: 1762
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-4751.0118
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
11332.2195
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-sp500_daily_5y