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Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
35
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~51% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~15 months before Retail Sales
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on Retail Sales.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
-85% → -50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
412
785
Normalized
412
785
Prepared
412
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
R²(i)
51.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
-89%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does Retail Sales today line up with ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread 15 months ago?"
20 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
-89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+77%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+74%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
379
A: 377 / B: 2
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.7041
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y