Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+53%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
35
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~28% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Building Permits moves ~1 month before ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
Watch Building Permits for an early read on ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+53%
Based on values
95% CI
+24% → +74%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
799
785
Normalized
799
785
Prepared
799
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
R²(i)
28%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
+62%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread 1 month from now?"
34 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
+62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-62%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-56%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
766
A: 764 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0016
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.2415
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-permit_monthly_5y