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Correlation
of values
+60%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
35
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Building Permits moves ~1 month before ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
Watch Building Permits for an early read on ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+60%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
797
785
Normalized
797
785
Prepared
797
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
36%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
+67%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread 1 month from now?"
34 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
+67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-62%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
764
A: 762 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0019
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.6027
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-permit_monthly_5y