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Correlation
of values
-79%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
35
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~63% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~14 months before Core PCE Price Index
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on Core PCE Price Index.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-79%
Based on values
95% CI
-89% → -62%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
785
Normalized
808
785
Prepared
808
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
62.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-14 months
Correlation at this shift
-92%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread shifted 14 months later. Reads: "Does Core PCE Price Index today line up with ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread 14 months ago?"
21 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-14 months
-92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-46%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+9%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
775
A: 773 / B: 2
Series A
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0523
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.6715
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-pcepilfe_monthly_5y