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Correlation
of values
+83%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
35
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~68% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~2 months before Job Openings
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on Job Openings.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+83%
Based on values
95% CI
+68% → +91%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
305
Normalized
785
305
Prepared
37
305
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
R²(i)
68.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
+88%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread today line up with Job Openings 2 months from now?"
33 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+65%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-27%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
272
A: 2 / B: 270
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 305 raw → 305 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3075.2447
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4002.7186
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y