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Correlation
of values
+68%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-31
785
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~46% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+68%
Based on values
95% CI
+64% → +72%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
785 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
1,862
Normalized
785
1,862
Prepared
785
1,862
Aligned
785
785
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
46%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
785
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+68%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
785 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-5%
232 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,077
A: 0 / B: 1077
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,862 raw → 1,862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.8128
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4072
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-iorb_daily_5y