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Correlation
of values
+31%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
35
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Housing Starts moves ~16 months before ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
Watch Housing Starts for an early read on ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+31%
Based on values
95% CI
-3% → +58%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
785
Normalized
811
785
Prepared
811
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
+39%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does Housing Starts today line up with ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread 16 months from now?"
19 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
+39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-28%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-31%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
778
A: 776 / B: 2
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0006
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.3021
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-houst_monthly_5y