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Correlation
of values
+65%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
36
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~42% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~14 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+65%
Based on values
95% CI
+41% → +81%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
36 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
863
785
Normalized
863
785
Prepared
863
37
Aligned
36
36
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
42.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
36
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-14 months
Correlation at this shift
+86%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread shifted 14 months later. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread 14 months ago?"
22 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+65%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-14 months
+86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+38%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
828
A: 827 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 863 raw → 863 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2035
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.2322
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y