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Correlation
of values
+70%
In sync
of periods
73%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
36
These move in the same direction about 73% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~49% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~10 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
73%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+70%
Based on values
95% CI
+48% → +83%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
36 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
866
785
Normalized
866
785
Prepared
866
37
Aligned
36
36
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
49%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
36
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-10 months
Correlation at this shift
+77%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread shifted 10 months later. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread 10 months ago?"
26 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+70%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 months
+77%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+38%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-17%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
831
A: 830 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 866 raw → 866 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1704
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.3560
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y