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Correlation
of values
-88%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
750
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~78% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-88%
Based on values
95% CI
-90% → -86%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
750 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
2,513
Normalized
785
2,513
Prepared
785
2,513
Aligned
750
750
Invalid removed
R²(i)
77.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
750
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
750 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
184 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,798
A: 35 / B: 1763
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
FRED · 2,513 raw → 2,513 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-21247.9898
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
66749.8760
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-djia_daily_5y