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Correlation
of values
-47%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~22% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-47%
Based on values
95% CI
-53% → -42%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
6,606
Normalized
786
6,606
Prepared
786
6,606
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
22.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-47%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
745 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
77 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
155 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,902
A: 41 / B: 5861
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 6,606 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-298.9679
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
472.0239
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-dexvzus_daily_5y