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Correlation
of values
-41%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on values
95% CI
-47% → -35%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
6,864
Normalized
786
6,864
Prepared
786
6,864
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
745 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+28%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
126 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6,160
A: 41 / B: 6119
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,864 raw → 6,864 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0877
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2135
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-dexuseu_daily_5y