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Correlation
of values
+67%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-28
745
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~45% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+67%
Based on values
95% CI
+63% → +71%
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
45%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+67%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
745 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+67%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+64%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+32%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
110 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
11,700
Normalized
785
11,700
Prepared
785
11,700
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,995
A: 40 / B: 10955
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,700 raw → 11,700 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
33
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.7945
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13.5254
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-dexsfus_daily_5y