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Correlation
of values
-51%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
745
These move opposite each other about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~26% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~6 days before USD/CAD Exchange Rate
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on USD/CAD Exchange Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-51%
Based on values
95% CI
-56% → -45%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
786
13,891
Normalized
786
13,891
Prepared
786
13,891
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
25.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
-56%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CAD Exchange Rate shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread today line up with USD/CAD Exchange Rate 6 days from now?"
739 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
-56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+45%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+18%
75 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
115 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,187
A: 41 / B: 13146
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 13,891 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0689
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4567
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-dexcaus_daily_5y