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Correlation
of values
+59%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
35
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~35% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~15 months before Labor Force Participation
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on Labor Force Participation.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+59%
Based on values
95% CI
+32% → +77%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
943
785
Normalized
943
785
Prepared
943
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
35%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -15 to 15 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
+68%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread 15 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
+68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
910
A: 908 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 943 raw → 943 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2669
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-15.5164
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-civpart_monthly_5y