Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+56%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
35
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~32% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~9 months before Labor Force Participation
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on Labor Force Participation.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+56%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +75%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
785
Normalized
940
785
Prepared
940
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
31.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
+69%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread 9 months ago?"
19 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
+69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+47%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
907
A: 905 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4309
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-25.7334
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-civpart_monthly_5y