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Correlation
of values
-77%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
36
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~60% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread moves ~18 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-77%
Based on values
95% CI
-88% → -60%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
36 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
785
246
Normalized
785
246
Prepared
37
246
Aligned
36
36
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
60%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
36
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-90%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 18 months from now?"
18 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-77%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-90%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-41%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
211
A: 1 / B: 210
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 246 raw → 246 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-5.4250
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
42.0600
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-ces0500000003_monthly_5y