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Correlation
of values
-54%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
155
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~29% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~11 weeks before ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-54%
Based on values
95% CI
-64% → -41%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
155 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
3,099
Normalized
785
3,099
Prepared
157
3,099
Aligned
155
155
Invalid removed
R²(i)
28.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
155
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-11 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-64%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 11 weeks later. Reads: "Does ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 11 weeks ago?"
144 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 weeks
-64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
75 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,946
A: 2 / B: 2944
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 3,099 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-151116.4303
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2026563.3392
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-ccsa_weekly_5y