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Correlation
of values
-32%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-33
154
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on values
95% CI
-45% → -17%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
154 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
3,111
Normalized
785
3,111
Prepared
157
3,111
Aligned
154
154
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
154
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 12 weeks ago?"
142 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-11%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
76 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,960
A: 3 / B: 2957
Series A
ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
BAMLC0A4CBBB
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,111 raw → 3,111 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-105167.3126
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1968044.6782
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a4cbbb_fred-ccsa_weekly_5y