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Correlation
of values
-71%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
35
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~50% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
IG Bond Spread moves ~2 months before U-6 Unemployment Rate
Watch IG Bond Spread for an early read on U-6 Unemployment Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-71%
Based on values
95% CI
-84% → -49%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
784
391
Normalized
784
391
Prepared
37
391
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
50%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -15 to 15 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
-76%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does IG Bond Spread today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 2 months from now?"
31 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
-76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-14%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
358
A: 2 / B: 356
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 391 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.9609
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.5019
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y