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Correlation
of values
-50%
In sync
of periods
37%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
746
These move in the same direction about 37% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~25% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-50%
Based on values
95% CI
-55% → -45%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
746 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
784
5,862
Normalized
784
5,862
Prepared
784
5,862
Aligned
746
746
Invalid removed
R²(i)
25.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
746
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-50%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
746 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
149 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,154
A: 38 / B: 5116
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 784 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 5,862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4865
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.7980
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-t5yie_daily_5y