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Correlation
of values
-46%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-06
746
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~21% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-46%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
746 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
784
5,881
Normalized
784
5,881
Prepared
784
5,881
Aligned
746
746
Invalid removed
21%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
746
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-46%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
746 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
141 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,173
A: 38 / B: 5135
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 784 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,881 raw → 5,881 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4693
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.7786
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-t5yie_daily_5y