SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-73%
of values
In sync
39%
of periods
History
748
days · through 2026-04-30
These move opposite each other about 39% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~53% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-73%
Based on values
95% CI
-76% → -69%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
748 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,085
785
Normalized
11,085
785
Prepared
11,085
785
Aligned
748
748
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
52.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
748
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-73%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
748 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-73%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+24%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+16%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
167 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,374
A: 10337 / B: 37
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,085 raw → 11,085 prepared
Series B
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Sign agreement
33.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1817
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.8676
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 days ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-t10y3m_5y