SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
-89%
In sync
of periods
32%
History
daysdays · through 2026-04-30
751
These move opposite each other about 32% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~78% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-89%
Based on values
95% CI
-90% → -87%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
751 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
2,515
Normalized
785
2,515
Prepared
785
2,515
Aligned
751
751
Invalid removed
R²(i)
78.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
751
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-89%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
751 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-89%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+75%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
193 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,798
A: 34 / B: 1764
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 2,515 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-4064.8531
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9541.8194
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-sp500_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.