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Correlation
of values
-77%
In sync
of periods
32%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
35
These move in the same direction about 32% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~60% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
IG Bond Spread moves ~17 months before Personal Consumption
Watch IG Bond Spread for an early read on Personal Consumption.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
32%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-77%
Based on values
95% CI
-88% → -59%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
784
Normalized
811
784
Prepared
811
36
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
60%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
-87%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
IG Bond Spread shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does Personal Consumption today line up with IG Bond Spread 17 months ago?"
18 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-77%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
-87%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+2%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
777
A: 776 / B: 1
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 36 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.2338
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-pce_monthly_5y