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Correlation
of values
+94%
In sync
of periods
69%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
156
These move in the same direction about 69% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~89% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
68.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+94%
Based on values
95% CI
+92% → +96%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
156 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
784
2,891
Normalized
784
2,891
Prepared
157
2,891
Aligned
156
156
Invalid removed
R²(i)
89.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
156
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
156 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+33%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+19%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
54 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,736
A: 1 / B: 2735
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,891 raw → 2,891 prepared
Sign agreement
0.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4609
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.8670
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-nfci_weekly_5y