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Correlation
of values
-83%
In sync
of periods
30%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-31
749
These move in the same direction about 30% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~69% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
30%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-83%
Based on values
95% CI
-85% → -81%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
749 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
784
14,011
Normalized
784
14,011
Prepared
784
14,011
Aligned
749
749
Invalid removed
R²(i)
69%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
749
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-83%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
749 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+45%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-21%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-74%
187 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,297
A: 35 / B: 13262
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 784 prepared
Series B
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 14,011 raw → 14,011 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-22079.7802
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
39499.7679
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-nasdaqcom_daily_5y