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Correlation
of values
+66%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
156
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~43% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
30Y Mortgage Rate moves ~12 weeks before IG Bond Spread
Watch 30Y Mortgage Rate for an early read on IG Bond Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+66%
Based on values
95% CI
+56% → +74%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
156 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,892
784
Normalized
2,892
784
Prepared
2,892
157
Aligned
156
156
Invalid removed
R²(i)
43%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
156
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+71%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
IG Bond Spread shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does 30Y Mortgage Rate today line up with IG Bond Spread 12 weeks from now?"
144 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
+71%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+24%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
78 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,737
A: 2736 / B: 1
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,892 raw → 2,892 prepared
Series B
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 157 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2515
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.7727
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-mortgage30us_weekly_5y