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Correlation
of values
+68%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-27
156
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~46% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+68%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
156 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
784
1,819
Normalized
784
1,819
Prepared
157
1,819
Aligned
156
156
Invalid removed
46%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
156
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+68%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
156 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
80 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,664
A: 1 / B: 1663
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,819 raw → 1,819 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.7015
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.3601
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-mortgage15us_weekly_5y