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Correlation
of values
+64%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
157
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~41% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+64%
Based on values
95% CI
+54% → +73%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
157 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
784
1,815
Normalized
784
1,815
Prepared
157
1,815
Aligned
157
157
Invalid removed
R²(i)
41.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
157
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+64%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
157 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-12%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
83 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,658
A: 0 / B: 1658
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,815 raw → 1,815 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.4793
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.5473
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-mortgage15us_weekly_5y