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Correlation
of values
-59%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
35
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
IG Bond Spread moves ~15 months before M1 Money Supply
Watch IG Bond Spread for an early read on M1 Money Supply.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-59%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
784
809
Normalized
784
809
Prepared
37
809
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
34%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
-88%
+29% stronger than no-shift baseline
M1 Money Supply shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does IG Bond Spread today line up with M1 Money Supply 15 months from now?"
20 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
-88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-19%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-27%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
776
A: 2 / B: 774
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1916.9630
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20324.6109
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-m1sl_monthly_5y