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Correlation
of values
+69%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-31
784
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~47% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+69%
Based on values
95% CI
+65% → +72%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
784 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
784
1,862
Normalized
784
1,862
Prepared
784
1,862
Aligned
784
784
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
47%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
784
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+69%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
784 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
230 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,078
A: 0 / B: 1078
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 784 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,862 raw → 1,862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.3979
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.5093
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-iorb_daily_5y