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Correlation
of values
+17%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
156
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+17%
Based on values
95% CI
+1% → +32%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
156 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,100
784
Normalized
3,100
784
Prepared
3,100
157
Aligned
156
156
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
156
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+17%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
156 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+17%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+17%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-37%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
87 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,945
A: 2944 / B: 1
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,100 raw → 3,100 prepared
Series B
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 157 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
38
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.4583
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-icsa_weekly_5y