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Correlation
of values
-73%
In sync
of periods
—
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
12
These move together
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~54% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
N/A
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-73%
Based on values
95% CI
-92% → -28%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
12 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
784
352
Normalized
784
352
Prepared
36
352
Aligned
12
12
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
54%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
12
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: 0 to 0 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-73%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-73%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
364
A: 24 / B: 340
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 36 prepared
Series B
Potential GDP
GDPPOT
FRED · 352 raw → 352 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2263.7260
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
25519.2223
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-gdppot_monthly_5y