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Correlation
of values
-80%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
35
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~64% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-80%
Based on values
95% CI
-89% → -63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
784
Normalized
811
784
Prepared
811
37
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
R²(i)
64%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-80%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
35 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-80%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-80%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+70%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+86%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
778
A: 776 / B: 2
Series A
Real Disposable Income
DSPIC96
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 37 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.4056
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-dspic96_monthly_5y