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Correlation
of values
+40%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
744
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
IG Bond Spread moves ~6 days before NZD/USD Exchange Rate
Watch IG Bond Spread for an early read on NZD/USD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+40%
Based on values
95% CI
+33% → +45%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
744 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
13,869
Normalized
785
13,869
Prepared
785
13,869
Aligned
744
744
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
744
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
+45%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
NZD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does IG Bond Spread today line up with NZD/USD Exchange Rate 6 days from now?"
738 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
+45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
134 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,166
A: 41 / B: 13125
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 13,869 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0392
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.5583
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-dexusnz_daily_5y