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Correlation
of values
-44%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
744
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on values
95% CI
-49% → -38%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
744 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
6,864
Normalized
785
6,864
Prepared
785
6,864
Aligned
744
744
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
744
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-44%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
744 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
123 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6,161
A: 41 / B: 6120
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,864 raw → 6,864 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1107
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2150
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-dexuseu_daily_5y