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Correlation
of values
+23%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-28
744
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/TWD Exchange Rate moves ~6 days before IG Bond Spread
Watch USD/TWD Exchange Rate for an early read on IG Bond Spread.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+23%
Based on values
95% CI
+16% → +30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
744 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
784
10,470
Normalized
784
10,470
Prepared
784
10,470
Aligned
744
744
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
744
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
-6 days
Correlation at this shift
+29%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/TWD Exchange Rate shifted 6 days later. Reads: "Does IG Bond Spread today line up with USD/TWD Exchange Rate 6 days ago?"
738 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 days
+29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+1%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+33%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
120 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
9,766
A: 40 / B: 9726
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 784 prepared
Series B
USD/TWD Exchange Rate
DEXTAUS
FRED · 10,470 raw → 10,470 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.5161
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
30.3169
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-dextaus_daily_5y