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Correlation
of values
+63%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
744
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~40% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+63%
Based on values
95% CI
+58% → +67%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
744 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
11,628
Normalized
785
11,628
Prepared
785
11,628
Aligned
744
744
Invalid removed
R²(i)
39.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
744
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+63%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
744 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+54%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+21%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
122 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,925
A: 41 / B: 10884
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 11,628 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.0821
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.0813
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-dexsfus_daily_5y