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Correlation
of values
-34%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
744
These move opposite each other about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on values
95% CI
-40% → -27%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
744 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
8,153
Normalized
785
8,153
Prepared
785
8,153
Aligned
744
744
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
744
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-34%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
744 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
82 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
114 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
7,450
A: 41 / B: 7409
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 8,153 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.3333
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20.5246
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-dexmxus_daily_5y