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Correlation
of values
-66%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-01
740
These move opposite each other about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~43% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-66%
Based on values
95% CI
-70% → -61%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
740 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
783
11,261
Normalized
783
11,261
Prepared
783
11,261
Aligned
740
740
Invalid removed
R²(i)
43.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
740
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-66%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
740 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
128 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,564
A: 43 / B: 10521
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 783 raw → 783 prepared
Series B
USD/KRW Exchange Rate
DEXKOUS
FRED · 11,261 raw → 11,261 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-213.6577
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1589.7381
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-dexkous_daily_5y