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Correlation
of values
-45%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-02
744
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~20% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-45%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
744 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
784
13,923
Normalized
784
13,923
Prepared
784
13,923
Aligned
744
744
Invalid removed
20%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
744
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-45%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
744 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-45%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+24%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-40%
107 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,219
A: 40 / B: 13179
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 784 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,923 raw → 13,923 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0787
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4503
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-dexcaus_daily_5y