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Correlation
of values
-36%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
745
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
IG Bond Spread moves ~6 days before USD/CAD Exchange Rate
Watch IG Bond Spread for an early read on USD/CAD Exchange Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on values
95% CI
-42% → -30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
745 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
784
13,968
Normalized
784
13,968
Prepared
784
13,968
Aligned
745
745
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
745
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CAD Exchange Rate shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does IG Bond Spread today line up with USD/CAD Exchange Rate 6 days from now?"
739 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
113 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,262
A: 39 / B: 13223
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 784 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,968 raw → 13,968 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0679
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.4421
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-dexcaus_daily_5y