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Correlation
of values
+58%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
35
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
IG Bond Spread moves ~11 months before CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
Watch IG Bond Spread for an early read on CPI: Used Cars & Trucks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+58%
Based on values
95% CI
+31% → +77%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
784
880
Normalized
784
880
Prepared
37
880
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
34.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+11 months
Correlation at this shift
-79%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks shifted 11 months earlier. Reads: "Does IG Bond Spread today line up with CPI: Used Cars & Trucks 11 months from now?"
24 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+11 months
-79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-15%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
847
A: 2 / B: 845
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 880 raw → 880 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
17.4119
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
167.3926
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-cusr0000seta02_monthly_5y