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Correlation
of values
-82%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
36
These move in the same direction about 31% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~67% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
IG Bond Spread moves ~15 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch IG Bond Spread for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-82%
Based on values
95% CI
-90% → -67%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
36 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
784
243
Normalized
784
243
Prepared
37
243
Aligned
36
36
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
67.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
36
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
-93%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does IG Bond Spread today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 15 months from now?"
21 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-82%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
-93%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-64%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
208
A: 1 / B: 207
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 37 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 243 raw → 243 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-5.7185
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
41.0322
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-ces0500000003_monthly_5y