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Correlation
of values
-78%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
35
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~61% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
IG Bond Spread moves ~18 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch IG Bond Spread for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-78%
Based on values
95% CI
-88% → -60%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
35 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
784
245
Normalized
784
245
Prepared
36
245
Aligned
35
35
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
61%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
35
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-89%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does IG Bond Spread today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 18 months from now?"
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-78%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-46%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-22%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
211
A: 1 / B: 210
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 36 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 245 raw → 245 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-6.3433
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
41.6409
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-ces0500000003_monthly_5y