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Correlation
of values
-32%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-34
154
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before IG Bond Spread
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on IG Bond Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on values
95% CI
-46% → -17%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
154 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
784
3,112
Normalized
784
3,112
Prepared
157
3,112
Aligned
154
154
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
154
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-44%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does IG Bond Spread today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 12 weeks ago?"
142 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-3%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
76 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,961
A: 3 / B: 2958
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,112 raw → 3,112 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-129785.8825
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1966161.9425
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-ccsa_weekly_5y