Correlation
of values
-68%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-16
155
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~46% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-68%
Based on values
95% CI
-76% → -58%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
155 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
785
3,094
Normalized
785
3,094
Prepared
157
3,094
Aligned
155
155
Invalid removed
R²(i)
46.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
155
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-68%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
155 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-9%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
77 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,941
A: 2 / B: 2939
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 785 raw → 157 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,094 raw → 3,094 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-212305.8770
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2052360.6162
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_fred-ccsa_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.