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American Water Works Company, Inc (AWK) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-40%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
261
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-50% → -30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,254
2,878
Normalized
1,254
2,878
Prepared
261
2,878
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-40%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
260 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-11%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-74%
151 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,617
A: 0 / B: 2617
Series A
American Water Works Company, Inc (AWK)
AWK
Stock · 1,254 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,878 raw → 2,878 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3412
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0028
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-awk_weekly_5y