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Correlation
of % moves
+39%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-01
497
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+39%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+31% → +46%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
497 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
2,512
Normalized
730
2,512
Prepared
730
2,512
Aligned
497
497
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
496
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+39%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
496 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
85 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
84 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
80 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,248
A: 233 / B: 2015
Series A
Avalanche (AVAX)
AVAX
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0733
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0008
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-avax_fred-sp500_daily_5y