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Avalanche (AVAX) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
+31%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
23
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
AVAX moves ~4 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch AVAX for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
798
Normalized
730
798
Prepared
25
798
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
10%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
21
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -5 to 5 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
+59%
+28% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Avalanche (AVAX) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 4 months from now?"
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
+59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
777
A: 2 / B: 775
Series A
Avalanche (AVAX)
AVAX
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 798 raw → 798 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3959
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.1113
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: crypto-avax_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y